I’ve heard this list attributed to one source or another, but I found it here today. It’s a list of questions that need to be answered before we do anything drastic about global warming.
(1) Is it occurring?
(2) If it is occurring, is it bad overall?
(3) If it is occurring and is bad overall, is it caused primarily by human factors?
(4) If (1) , (2), and (3) are true, can humans do anything significant about it that is not overbalanced by detrimental factors?
(On global warming, see the chapter on global warming in Tom Bethell’s delightful book, The Politically Incorrect Guide to Science.)
After talking about this issue with Jared, I’m willing to concede that #3 isn’t critical to the logical cohesiveness of the list:”(Assume, for a moment, that global warming is occuring, that it is bad, that it is caused by intestinal gas passed by eels, and that we could do something to stop it without an abundance of detrimental factors. Even if we’re not causing it, we should probably do something to stop it.)”:, but I would suggest that most folks that are truly concerned with this issue haven’t answered (even in their own minds) #4. I would further suggest that many of them have barely answered #1 (can you say “scientific consensus” ten times fast?), and have used this as a launch pad for crusades involving funny-shaped light bulbs and unplugged cell phone chargers.
Anyway, back on track. Consider the following scenario: The earth is really getting warmer, and every one degree increase in the temperature will lead to the extinction of one endangered species. Our nasty addiction to internal combustion has been proven to be the cause, and the only way to turn the tide is to stop pumping oil out of the ground and instead to run cars on pure ethanol. While this course of action would guarantee the reversal of an increasing greenhouse effect, it would also lead to the collapse of any vestige of civilization in the Middle East, leading to civil wars and terrorist acts that would kill nearly a billion people throughout Europe, Asia, and northern Africa. One other byproduct would be for the U.S. to invest all surplus corn, wheat, soybeans, and any other food crop into clean fuel production, instead of exporting them, leading to the starvation of 750 million starving people in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia.
Now, I’ll admit that this scenario may be far-fetched. However, humor me for a second. If the “cost to cure” global warming would be the death of 1.75 billion people, would it be worth fighting in order to save polar bears? What if the number was *only* 1 billion? Would that be any different? What if coastal flooding, induced by the complete disappearance of the polar caps, would kill or displace 100 million people, while global warming counter measures would kill or displace 200 million? No matter what you believe, you would have to admit that efforts to combat global warming come with a price tag.
I saw one estimate the other day that said it would take $45 trillion to effectively fight global warming. The Global Warming Zealots will tell you that this “investment” would actually have a positive effect on the global economy, but that can’t possibly be true. Every dollar that is invested into the science of “carbon capture and storage”, for example, is a dollar that won’t be invested into the production of something that would actually be useful. Look at it this way; I could pay you $45k a year to walk in circles in my back yard all day, and that would impact the economy because you now have a job, you pay taxes, and you spend that money on “stuff,” which keeps the economy rolling. Or, I could pay you $45k to tend a garden in my back yard, producing $10 a week in vegetables that wouldn’t exist if not for your hard work. In scenario 1, the “investment” of $45k yields less per year in productivity, because in scenario 2 I still have all of the benefits of scenario 1, plus $520 in fruits and vegetables.
Now, think about the effect of pulling $45 trillion out of the global economy to produce goods and services nobody really wants, nobody really needs, and that will likely decrease global production instead of increasing it. You think high gas prices are hitting the economy hard?
Here’s the bottom line. Global warming may or may not be happening. Global warming may or may not be bad. Global warming may or may not be caused by man. That’s not the point. Even if these three things are true, before we start taking action we first need to realize that such actions will have consequences. And, if these consequences outweigh the initial threat proposed by global warming, then the best course of action would be to just get out of the way and to try not make things worse by starving people and shipwrecking economies in the name of environmentalism.